UFC 264 (My Pre-fight Thoughts and Picks)

So I've said two things and I've been really consistent with them, so I'll continue to say them here.

One, I've always liked MMA, but without Ronda Rousey and Conor McGregor, I would not be the fan I am today of MMA. It's overtaken every other sport as my favorite sport, I watch nearly every card (I'm a Father of a one year old, so it's not always feasible) from the first fight on the card, until the last and then any press conferences. I love MMA and consume as much content as I can. 

Two, I think Dustin Poirier, since Khabib Nurmagomedov retired, is the best Lightweight on the planet until proven otherwise. The guy just finds ways to win. I said that before the second fight and I'll say it again now. That doesn't mean I don't think Conor McGregor can't beat him, I think as short as the second fight was, there was a lot to like if you're a Conor fan. Yes, Poirier took him down, but there was next to no damage inflicted, Conor got back up to his feet and controlled the clinch for the most part.

The calf kick was clearly a big factor, is six months enough for Conor to adjust to that? We'll see. I don't expect that will be Poirier's only line of attack though, although that was the clear advantage he had in the second fight. This notion that Poirier is the all around better mixed martial artist, I don't know that I buy. He has 2 submission wins in the UFC and one of those was 4 years ago and the other one of those was against like an 8 year old Max Holloway, who's admitted he learned MMA by playing UFC video games. 😂 Other than that, all of Poirier's wins are by TKO/KO or decision, same as Conor.

Overall, I think this fight is real risky for Conor. Another loss and the shine starts to come off, because that will be 2-3 in the last 5. I think the UFC is more fun with Conor as champ. I thought the press conference yesterday was awful. Both the questions and the energy from the fighters. The line everyone is giving Poirier props for, "McGregorFAST, no McGregor sleep" was so cringe it reminded me of a bully from an Adam Sandler movie, "O'Doyle RULES!" and Conor did sort of resemble the coked out Conor from before the Khabib fight. The whole thing definitely made me less excited about the fight than I had been leading up to it and I think Poirier's lack of want or desire to sell the fight is a part of that. I think this trilogy is a little unfortunate because I don't think he makes for a good rival for Conor the way Nate Diaz or Khabib do.

So here's my picks and they're made with buying into the rumor that Conor has recently had a staph infection, which I think if true we'll begin to see the effects of on his cardio in Round 3 if Conor's not able to get him out of there before then.

Jennifer Maia > Jessica Eye
Ryan Hall > Ilia Topuria
Niko Price > Michel Pereira
Carlos Condit > Max Griffin
Sean O'Malley > Kris Moutinho
Irene Aldana > Yana Kunitskaya
Tai Tuivasa < Greg Hardy
Gilbert Burns > Stephen Thompson
Dustin Poirier > Conor McGregor

Surprises me to see Maia so low on the card considering she just recently fought for the championship. I expect like 3 or 4 imanari rolls from Ryan Hall. Niko Price and Michel Pereira is probably fight of the night. I hope Condit has a great performance, one of my favorite fighters, but I would like to see him retire sooner than later. Sean O'Malley probably gets KO of the night. I expect Aldana to get back on track. I think Hardy clips Tuivasa as he closes the distance. I think Wonderboy is too old to hang with someone as good as Burns now and I think the staph is a factor in the main event.